If you only measure median performance as this is doing, do any group of individuals' stock trades beat the market? I'd expect most of the alpha to come not from the median transaction but from a few well timed buys or sales.
> It does not show that no member ever trades on what they know: a few well-timed trades can hide inside thousands of ordinary ones, and this test looks at the typical trade, not the best one.
I remember reading they don't disclose the exact date and hour of the purchase and sale, so intra-day trading or tight timeline trades are impossible to measure, is that correct?
Sure, as long as you actually follow through and go to primary sources and do that analysis, I see no problem with using Claude as a starting point. However, please actually go to the sources it gave you and do the analysis yourself. This is way too important for someone to be able to handwave us and say we are wrong.
Tl;Dr please double check with the sources that Claude gave you?
I used it as high-level analysis, I'm downloading the data to do my own analysis. Seems 12% of trades are intra-day... but that's the early data I'm seeing
> It does not show that no member ever trades on what they know: a few well-timed trades can hide inside thousands of ordinary ones, and this test looks at the typical trade, not the best one.
Does this article take into account intraday trading or trading where the purchase and the sale occurs within 45 days?
And:
"Is there a way someone could have generated a positive revenue even though they reported as negative?"
Conclusion -- their numbers could still allow someone to make positive return even though they report mostly negative alpha
Gosh I love AI for analyzing lousy reports and articles that are inaccurate.
Tl;Dr please double check with the sources that Claude gave you?