Most mutations are negative dead-ends, not unlikely DNA now where most pregnancies spontaneously abort due to errors. But life has many, many chances — especially at the molecular scale. So what’s the actual problem?
Similarly, if you have a soup of 10-15 nucleotide sequences, what are the odds actually that they’d link into larger segments?
Let’s suppose that density is a million times lower than blood, so you have one picogram per gram of water. There are 10^24 grams of water on Earth’s surface and 10 base pairs weighs 10^-20 grams, giving us approximately 10^32 segments of that length.
Feel free to play with my numbers, but I’m supposed to believe that with ~10^30 pieces, we can’t have ten of them form the right sequence?
A combinatorial explosion. To have mutations you need to have replication first. If a smallest viable self-replicator is, say, 100 nucleotides long, and there's not many other such replicators of the same length, the improbability of its spontaneous formation (~4^-100) dwarfs any amount of material available on Earth.
The researchers have found QT45 replicator. But it replicates other RNA strands, that is it needs another replicator nearby to replicate itself, which brings the probability down to 4^-90 range.
And it's not clear from the article whether QT45 is a viable replicator. That is whether it is stable enough and replicates other RNA strands correctly enough to sustain exponential growth instead of petering out due to filling its surroundings with broken copies that don't perform replication before decaying itself.
Life didn't have to start on Earth. It could have started on any one of an unbounded number of worlds. It's only in retrospect that this world seems special.
What's the probability of spontaneous formation across an infinite universe?
In an infinite universe even events with probability 0 can happen[1], but it's hard to find this explanation satisfactory. Any hypothesis that raises probability of abiogenesis to make it likely to happen at least in the observable universe looks more satisfactory than "but it could have happened anyway in an infinite universe despite being totally improbable."
Most mutations are negative dead-ends, not unlikely DNA now where most pregnancies spontaneously abort due to errors. But life has many, many chances — especially at the molecular scale. So what’s the actual problem?
Similarly, if you have a soup of 10-15 nucleotide sequences, what are the odds actually that they’d link into larger segments?
Let’s suppose that density is a million times lower than blood, so you have one picogram per gram of water. There are 10^24 grams of water on Earth’s surface and 10 base pairs weighs 10^-20 grams, giving us approximately 10^32 segments of that length.
Feel free to play with my numbers, but I’m supposed to believe that with ~10^30 pieces, we can’t have ten of them form the right sequence?
A combinatorial explosion. To have mutations you need to have replication first. If a smallest viable self-replicator is, say, 100 nucleotides long, and there's not many other such replicators of the same length, the improbability of its spontaneous formation (~4^-100) dwarfs any amount of material available on Earth.
The researchers have found QT45 replicator. But it replicates other RNA strands, that is it needs another replicator nearby to replicate itself, which brings the probability down to 4^-90 range.
And it's not clear from the article whether QT45 is a viable replicator. That is whether it is stable enough and replicates other RNA strands correctly enough to sustain exponential growth instead of petering out due to filling its surroundings with broken copies that don't perform replication before decaying itself.
What's the probability of spontaneous formation across an infinite universe?
[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almost_surely