> - 42% are hopeful or excited about the tech industry
doesn't that ignore the overlap?
1102 of 4694 (23%) respondents said they were hopeful
897 of 4694 (19%) respondents said they were excited
So, for example, if all of the ones who were excited also said they were hopeful, then only 23% of respondents are "hopeful or excited about the tech industry".
(on that question they could submit more than one answer)
From looking at their data it looks like decades of failing up is reaching a breaking point. I can look back in my career and I have had some stellar leaders, some of which had never tried to write code a day in their life.
I have also had just as many terrible managers. At the last job I worked with somebody who thought they were my manager. They weren't and did not even have the same employer. They were my peer. Nonetheless they withheld client communications until my own employer was forced to fire me. Their employer fired them shortly after. Could it have been the fraud, the dereliction of duty, the toxic leadership? Who knows, there are just so many to choose from.
How did we get here? Well, in the corporate non-software company world there is clearly an 80/20 rule at play. 80% of the developers provide 20% of the total development value. Most of my career has been in non-software company web businesses like Travelocity and Expedia. I have also spent time in finance, where that company employed more developers that most large companies have total headcount. Most of these people were some form of JavaScript framework in the browser and Java outside the browser doing the backend web things.
Most of these people really sucked at what they do. They weren't terrible people, some few were, they just weren't properly mentored and worked in an environment where failure and coloring books was more of the expectation than the exception. To be more clear, in case the analogy was ambiguous, most developers are intentional over paid commodities to be hired and fired as rapidly as they could be found.
After a couple decades of this madness this is the baseline culture of user-face web software. Essentially: drop out of high school, go to a 6 week boot camp, put text on screen with React for $140k per year. Or, plan B, pay way too much for a computer science bachelor's degree and start at 20% higher compensation. Not surprisingly there is a lot of insecurity there (I saw it screaming from the shadows at every job). Say anything about it and the resentment comes alive in all its wonderful forms. Less surprisingly, over time those people get promoted into management where neglecting skill development becomes the standard for the next wave of new hires, as if to say: "STFU, go back to your coloring books". It really comes full circle when people then use their inability to innovate as a badge of honor to justify their continued employment.
Natural selection at work, somehow. This isn't a dig at people without kids, you do you, I just find it interesting that our brightest minds also tend to be leaves on the tree, never becoming branches. They just leave their toys for the rest to play with, kind of undermining our actual progress.
When you have to work for decades to pay off the cost of education (that the state used to heavily subsidize), much less ever afford a house, much LESS ever afford a house big enough to raise kids, is it any shock that those bright and motivated enough to be the best aren't able to spare the time any more?
Nah, I don't buy for a second the reason is economic. I remember how the conditions were much worse when I was a kid and my parents raised me anyways. And I look at how countries getting richer leads to less kids.
I know that this is the rhetoric around why people are not having kids, but it's a pretext, it's not the real reason.
> Nah, I don't buy for a second the reason is economic.
Mass Mutual, 2024: Of those surveyed who plan to remain child free, 43% cited “inability to afford children”[0].
Pew, 2024: Of those who feel it is unlikely that they will have children, 41% of people under 40 cited “can’t afford it” as a reason they are not having children, versus only 22% for those 40+[1].
Morning Consult, 2020: 41% of adults without children cite “it’s too expensive to raise children” as a reason; 24% say it is a “major reason”.[2]
BadCredit.org, 2024: 86% of adults who have delayed having children did so for financial reasons[3].
The Morning Consult survey may be particularly useful if you want to look at just one, because it has more granular age cohort breakdowns which show a clear trend for younger people not having children for financial reasons.
33% say "not finding the right partner". Everything being too expensive such that we're working all the time and don't have any down time is a huge part of that. Economics play into leisure time, stress, and things that kill relationships and the desire to have sex/kids.
> while Japan shows the highest immigration levels among respondents, this is almost certainly due to the survey failing to reach the native Japanese population more than to any real demographic trend.
So we are admitting that the result is useless?
> despite being known as “a nation of immigrants”, only 17% of respondents from the U.S. have immigrant roots, versus 22% overall.
What was he expecting? 100%? From what I can find, US first born immigrant % is about 16%, so basically within the massive margins of error this thing has, this is a non result.
I don't think this thing is designed to elicit anything useful except vibes & giving the author a platform to pontificate.
- 50% are thinking somewhat-to-very unlikely they'll be changing careers in the next 5 years
- 42% are hopeful or excited about the tech industry
doesn't that ignore the overlap?
So, for example, if all of the ones who were excited also said they were hopeful, then only 23% of respondents are "hopeful or excited about the tech industry".(on that question they could submit more than one answer)
Stack Overflow Developer Survey 2026
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49978972
I have also had just as many terrible managers. At the last job I worked with somebody who thought they were my manager. They weren't and did not even have the same employer. They were my peer. Nonetheless they withheld client communications until my own employer was forced to fire me. Their employer fired them shortly after. Could it have been the fraud, the dereliction of duty, the toxic leadership? Who knows, there are just so many to choose from.
How did we get here? Well, in the corporate non-software company world there is clearly an 80/20 rule at play. 80% of the developers provide 20% of the total development value. Most of my career has been in non-software company web businesses like Travelocity and Expedia. I have also spent time in finance, where that company employed more developers that most large companies have total headcount. Most of these people were some form of JavaScript framework in the browser and Java outside the browser doing the backend web things.
Most of these people really sucked at what they do. They weren't terrible people, some few were, they just weren't properly mentored and worked in an environment where failure and coloring books was more of the expectation than the exception. To be more clear, in case the analogy was ambiguous, most developers are intentional over paid commodities to be hired and fired as rapidly as they could be found.
After a couple decades of this madness this is the baseline culture of user-face web software. Essentially: drop out of high school, go to a 6 week boot camp, put text on screen with React for $140k per year. Or, plan B, pay way too much for a computer science bachelor's degree and start at 20% higher compensation. Not surprisingly there is a lot of insecurity there (I saw it screaming from the shadows at every job). Say anything about it and the resentment comes alive in all its wonderful forms. Less surprisingly, over time those people get promoted into management where neglecting skill development becomes the standard for the next wave of new hires, as if to say: "STFU, go back to your coloring books". It really comes full circle when people then use their inability to innovate as a badge of honor to justify their continued employment.
I know that this is the rhetoric around why people are not having kids, but it's a pretext, it's not the real reason.
Mass Mutual, 2024: Of those surveyed who plan to remain child free, 43% cited “inability to afford children”[0].
Pew, 2024: Of those who feel it is unlikely that they will have children, 41% of people under 40 cited “can’t afford it” as a reason they are not having children, versus only 22% for those 40+[1].
Morning Consult, 2020: 41% of adults without children cite “it’s too expensive to raise children” as a reason; 24% say it is a “major reason”.[2]
BadCredit.org, 2024: 86% of adults who have delayed having children did so for financial reasons[3].
The Morning Consult survey may be particularly useful if you want to look at just one, because it has more granular age cohort breakdowns which show a clear trend for younger people not having children for financial reasons.
[0] https://www.massmutual.com/global/media/shared/doc/q3_2024_m...
[1] https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2024/07/25/reasons...
[2] https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/09/2806512...
[3] https://www.badcredit.org/studies/plans-to-have-children-in-...
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2024/07/25/reasons...
33% say "not finding the right partner". Everything being too expensive such that we're working all the time and don't have any down time is a huge part of that. Economics play into leisure time, stress, and things that kill relationships and the desire to have sex/kids.
Fascinating. I wonder if there is some other confounding factor here.
- 49, leaf on a tree.
> while Japan shows the highest immigration levels among respondents, this is almost certainly due to the survey failing to reach the native Japanese population more than to any real demographic trend.
So we are admitting that the result is useless?
> despite being known as “a nation of immigrants”, only 17% of respondents from the U.S. have immigrant roots, versus 22% overall.
What was he expecting? 100%? From what I can find, US first born immigrant % is about 16%, so basically within the massive margins of error this thing has, this is a non result.
I don't think this thing is designed to elicit anything useful except vibes & giving the author a platform to pontificate.